Foul Probability Predictor
📝 Player Data Entry
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Visualizing highest friction zones and positional clashes.
Tactical Battleground Analytics
Correlation between a player’s stats and their direct positional opponents.
Top Matchups
Full Match Involvement Forecast Matrix
Likelihood Rating (0.0 to 9.9) and Fair Value Odds.
| Player | Position | Fouls Committed | Fouls Won | Yellow Card |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | |||
Data & Calculation Methodology
Prediction Logic
The system calculates the probability of foul events by comparing two key metrics: Fouls Committed (FC) and Fouls Won (FW).
- Dynamic Comparison: The engine automatically selects the higher percentage between a player’s likelihood to commit a foul and their likelihood to win one.
- Poisson Distribution: Probabilities are generated using a Poisson model based on the player’s ‘Per 90’ rate and expected minutes played.
Matchup Weighting
Matchups aren’t just based on raw stats; they utilize a Positional Multiplier Matrix to reflect tactical reality.
- High Conflict (1.6x): Applied to natural clashes like Wingers vs Fullbacks (LW vs RB) or Strikers vs Center Backs (ST vs CB).
- Tactical Adjustments: Midfielders battling for possession (CM vs CM) receive a 1.4x boost, while non-clashing positions are scaled down to 0.75x.
Yellow Card Watch
The “Yellow Card Watch” prediction is a derivative of the 2+ Foul likelihood.
Statistically, players committing multiple fouls are at a significantly higher risk of a booking. The model applies a 0.35 coefficient to the 2+ Foul probability to determine the “Card Watch” threshold.
Risk Alert Thresholds
The alert icon appears when a prediction crosses a statistical “High Confidence” boundary:
- To commit 1+ fouls: 80% Probability
- To commit 2+ fouls: 40% Probability
- To commit 3+ fouls: 10% Probability
- To be shown a yellow card: 30% Probability